The 10-Year Surge: North Texas Land Values (2015-2026)

February 7, 2026 : This is a 100–1,000 acre tract conversation only. If it’s not big enough to matter to a developer’s 10-year pipeline, it’s not in this write-up.

The cleanest way to understand what happened from 2015 to 2026 is to look at the baseline era (2015–2020) next to the 2026 reality and call the move for what it is: a reset in what “normal” development dirt costs in North Texas.

100–1,000 Acre Development Tracts: 2015–2020 Baseline vs. 2026 Reality

Price Displacement: The Old “High End” Is Now the Floor

Back in 2015–2020, $30,000/acre was the number people argued about. That was “high end” development dirt unless you were sitting on top of utilities with a clean entitlement path.

In 2026, that same $30,000/acre number is often:

• the floor for raw ranch land in secondary markets, and
• not even in the discussion for 100–1,000 acre tracts with a real development path in Collin, Denton, or the I-75 growth corridor.

That’s the displacement. The market didn’t just move up. It re-labeled the entire pricing ladder.

The Sherman/TI Effect: A 10-Year Cycle Compressed Into 4

Grayson County didn’t get a slow, steady 10-year appreciation curve. It got a catalyst.

The $30B+ Texas Instruments industrial investment in Sherman (and the broader supplier / data / industrial ecosystem that follows it) pulled demand forward. In practical terms:

• land that would have taken a decade to “get discovered” got discovered fast
• underwriting assumptions changed
• hold periods shortened
• development-path pricing showed up years early

If you’re wondering why Gunter and Van Alstyne started trading like “next tier Collin” instead of “far north,” that’s the answer.

The Celina Blueprint: Infrastructure + 1,000-Acre MPCs

Celina is the case study because it stacked the two things that matter most for 100–1,000 acre outcomes:

• infrastructure that changes commute math (DNT extension)
• massive 1,000-acre master-planned communities that force the retail/medical/schools timeline to accelerate

When those two line up, land doesn’t appreciate in a straight line. It gaps up in steps:

• first step: “path is real”
• second step: “rooftops are locked”
• third step: “commercial demand is measurable”
• fourth step: “replacement cost sets the comp”

That’s how you go from $25k–$45k dirt to $125k–$275k dirt inside one cycle.

Conclusion: The 2026 Path of Growth Isn’t a Crawl — It’s a Sprint North and East

In 2026, the path of growth isn’t moving one exit at a time. It’s moving by corridor:

• north on US-75 into Grayson
• north on the DNT spine through Celina/Prosper influence
• east as buyers/developers chase displacement value into Rockwall/Kaufman

If you’re evaluating 100–1,000 acre tracts right now, the job is simple: figure out whether you’re buying “baseline-era” pricing in a corridor that’s about to re-rate, or you’re paying “2026 reality” pricing and you need speed, scale, and execution to justify it.

For a current look at available land listings or to talk through acquisition strategy on a 100–1,000 acre tract, reach out to our team at Cooper Land Company.